COVID-19 response simulations - if you read only one thing!

by Tucker62 @, Vancouver, Wednesday, May 20, 2020, 10:37 (44 days ago)

Please go to this website and take the time to understand the material. It's epidemiology 101 put into simple easy-to-understand simulations. It helps understand the roles of hygiene, lockdowns, masks, contact tracing, etc. It explains R0 (R-nought), herd immunity, second waves (and third and so on) and other terms you've been hearing so much about. When you are finished you'll understand how our behaviours and beliefs will affect how this plays out - how long it lasts, how many people die, and how badly it affects the economy.
https://ncase.me/covid-19/

COVID-19 response simulations - if you read only one thing!

by KinCT @, Wednesday, May 20, 2020, 19:27 (43 days ago) @ Tucker62

Thanks for this, Tucker. I'll get into this and become educated.

Keith

COVID-19 response simulations - if you read only one thing!

by Tucker62 @, Vancouver, Wednesday, May 20, 2020, 21:40 (43 days ago) @ KinCT

Thanks Keith. I'm kinda shy about posting here, but this is so important. If one doesn't understand this info then one shouldn't have an opinion (definitely shouldn't share it anyway) and should just follow the scientists' guidance. We have a grave responsibility to everyone around us.

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Models and Responses

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Thursday, May 21, 2020, 09:01 (43 days ago) @ Tucker62

Please go to this website and take the time to understand the material. It's epidemiology 101 put into simple easy-to-understand simulations. It helps understand the roles of hygiene, lockdowns, masks, contact tracing, etc. It explains R0 (R-nought), herd immunity, second waves (and third and so on) and other terms you've been hearing so much about. When you are finished you'll understand how our behaviours and beliefs will affect how this plays out - how long it lasts, how many people die, and how badly it affects the economy.
https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Yes, thank you for posting this. Fortunately Mexico's official national response is in the hands of renowned and qualified epidemiólogos, not politicians, and I believe it's extremely important that here in Mexico we respect their expertise instead of pretending to second-guess it with models and responses that don't account for the peculiarities of Mexico. From the beginning of Mexico's response going back to January 3rd, modeling such as this has played a major role, but again, taking into account the unique factors of Mexico that may not apply in models of other nations, societies and cultures. As explained in the link you provided, the modeling used to base policy on are much more complicated. And above all, there remain unknown factors, which in modeling mean everything.

Personally, IMHO the most important takeaway from all of this is that humans must change their lifestyles to find a better balance with the planet's cumulative ecosystems, let's call them, its biosphere. The "American Dream" is unsustainable and the attempt by an increasing human population to emulate it is literally killing the planet and leading to the increase in the biosphere's "natural defenses": the proliferation of viruses and other defense mechanisms that primarily attack the human population not unlike antibodies in a body. Unfortunately, I don't see the lesson being learned. I see most everyone quite eager to get right back into their old overconsumptive unsustainable lifestyles. A damn shame, though I hope I'm mistaken.

Models and Responses

by Mexalberta @, Thursday, May 21, 2020, 10:36 (43 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

You are right Medical Experts should make the decisions.
We are very fortunate in Canada our Chief Medical Officers in each Province have control and have been exceptional.
Trudeau just repeats himself daily and gives money away. No control over the Provincial Health Systems.
The only good thing he has done is keeping the 49th closed for non essential travel.
Mexico still doesn't have my faith in dealing with Covid hope it doesn't become Brazil.

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Models and Responses

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Thursday, May 21, 2020, 11:36 (43 days ago) @ Mexalberta

You are right Medical Experts should make the decisions.
We are very fortunate in Canada our Chief Medical Officers in each Province have control and have been exceptional.
Trudeau just repeats himself daily and gives money away. No control over the Provincial Health Systems.
The only good thing he has done is keeping the 49th closed for non essential travel.
Mexico still doesn't have my faith in dealing with Covid hope it doesn't become Brazil.

I'm curious if you are still getting your Mexico information from a third party or if you are actually watching any of the briefings where all these matters are discussed and questions you bring up are answered without resorting to political opinions or insults. It's fine for you to disagree with the Mexican government's response, but if you don't actually know what it is but instead rely on third party info then you leave yourself handicapped.

For example, you may think "giving money away" aka economic stimulus is bad because you're a person who's worked hard and saved up and been fortunate to achieve a level of economic comfort and independence, and apparently your political leanings don't allow anyone else to be any less industrious than you. Fine, an erroneous point of view IMHO, but it's yours. Nevertheless, there are people who through no fault of their own have lost their income and whatever savings they had, and giving them money stimulates the economy and more importantly keeps them alive until they can get back on their feet. We all pay taxes that go for things we don't always benefit from directly, but that's what being a citizen of a democratic nation is all about. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Models and Responses

by Mexalberta @, Thursday, May 21, 2020, 12:11 (43 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

I agree money for the good of the economy is justified. But assistance must be balanced and fair not for political gain.
I am not thinking of myself with regard to this. Our future generations will pay the burden.
That's life.

Models and Responses

by Tucker62 @, Vancouver, Thursday, May 21, 2020, 11:02 (43 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

I agree that Mexico is doing a great job using science-based solutions tailored to local challenges. And I totally agree with your point about the community minded and socially responsible Mexican people being a huge advantage. To be clear, the linked article is a general overview, an Epidemiology For Dummies; it does a truly great job of teaching us about the terms we're hearing so much, e.g., R0 (R-nought), R, herd immunity, flattening the curve, etc. And it helps us understand exactly what we're trying to achieve with our lockdowns and social distancing, etc...and the consequences of not achieving it. My key take away is this: until a vaccine is found, scaled up, and delivered worldwide, we are in for a series of lockdowns and partial openings - the better we behave the shorter will be the lockdowns and the longer can be the openings. A good-looking maverick gunslinger isn't gonna ride into town and shoot this thing out of the air; we have to fight this thing as a team.

COVID-19 response simulations - if you read only one thing!

by BobM @, Thursday, May 21, 2020, 10:22 (43 days ago) @ Tucker62

This is great stuff, a welcome rellief from the over-politicized reporting that is most of what is available.