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by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Friday, March 09, 2018, 08:54 (228 days ago) @ Mexalberta

I would not buy yet.
If Obrador wins the election the world as foreigners know it could change drastically for the worse.
He does not like affluence.

Really? That's not what he's telling the Mexican bankers currently at their 81st annual convention in Acapulco. I'm no López Obrador fan, but your comment sounds like you've fallen for the PRI-PAN propaganda. Andrés Manuel López Obrador is a faux socialist and a faux leftist. He's actually more authoritarian and conservative than the image he projects to his star-struck followers. Though he touts the support he receives from the intellectual class, most of his supporters are fairly poorly educated.

López Obrador winning the July election is unlikely to have any major impact on the economy beyond a nervous initial few weeks for the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV). He would need a majority in Congress to keep his populist promises and there is no indication he will have anything remotely close to a majority even forming coalitions with the PRD (with whom he's had a serious falling out and which is already itself quite fractured and currently aligned with the conservative PAN for the presidency), the PT (Partido del Trabajo), and the PES (Partido Encuentro Social, an unlikely ally being they are a conservative party). So even with all his promises he won't have the funding he needs to carry them out. He won't be able to undo the Reforma Energética which is bearing fruit, creating jobs and increasing foreign investment, shielding Mexico from the whimsical economic swings affecting much of the rest of the world. He won't be able to undo the Reforma Educativa which is also bearing fruit and improving the quality of education. When he was the mayor of Mexico City over 18 years ago one of his major achievements was the construction of a series of elevated roadways known collectively as "el segundo piso". He never redistributed any wealth. He'll likely be obligated to deal with the problems of violence, narcos, impunity, judicial reform, and public security.


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