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Back side of the spike

by juanrojo @, Saturday, July 14, 2018, 20:54 (35 days ago) @ midalake

You can try to learn from long term charts. The ten year includes some spikes around the last Mexican presidential election, likely/maybe based on money traders fear of the unknown and then the settling once the choice is made, almost without regard to the policies of the choice. There is the huge spike for the American presidential election and then the return to more normal values. The recent peso strength MAY just be regaining some of the ground that was irrationally lost a few months ago leading up to the uncertainty of Mexico's election.

American stock markets also react positively, historically, to new US presidents again regardless of ideology , but with the presumption of likely stated and stable policies for 4 years.

You also cannot disregard the ballbusting strength of the US dollar to ALL currencies. I have seen predictions, no matter how counterintuitive they may seem given the current US leadership, of a very strong US dollar for many years more.

Sometimes when we Canadians or our Mexican friends see a drop in our currency it is actually just a refletion of a rise in the US dollar against all currencies for whatever reason. The true relative strength of the peso might better be gauged by a Canadian dollar comparisons as both are sensitive to petro dollar fluctuations.

It's hindsight but it was more predicatable to suggest paying for lodgings near election day than going forward in my opinion.

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Please be happy always


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