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Models and Responses

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Thursday, May 21, 2020, 09:01 (15 days ago) @ Tucker62

Please go to this website and take the time to understand the material. It's epidemiology 101 put into simple easy-to-understand simulations. It helps understand the roles of hygiene, lockdowns, masks, contact tracing, etc. It explains R0 (R-nought), herd immunity, second waves (and third and so on) and other terms you've been hearing so much about. When you are finished you'll understand how our behaviours and beliefs will affect how this plays out - how long it lasts, how many people die, and how badly it affects the economy.
https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Yes, thank you for posting this. Fortunately Mexico's official national response is in the hands of renowned and qualified epidemiólogos, not politicians, and I believe it's extremely important that here in Mexico we respect their expertise instead of pretending to second-guess it with models and responses that don't account for the peculiarities of Mexico. From the beginning of Mexico's response going back to January 3rd, modeling such as this has played a major role, but again, taking into account the unique factors of Mexico that may not apply in models of other nations, societies and cultures. As explained in the link you provided, the modeling used to base policy on are much more complicated. And above all, there remain unknown factors, which in modeling mean everything.

Personally, IMHO the most important takeaway from all of this is that humans must change their lifestyles to find a better balance with the planet's cumulative ecosystems, let's call them, its biosphere. The "American Dream" is unsustainable and the attempt by an increasing human population to emulate it is literally killing the planet and leading to the increase in the biosphere's "natural defenses": the proliferation of viruses and other defense mechanisms that primarily attack the human population not unlike antibodies in a body. Unfortunately, I don't see the lesson being learned. I see most everyone quite eager to get right back into their old overconsumptive unsustainable lifestyles. A damn shame, though I hope I'm mistaken.


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