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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Friday, September 04, 2020, 12:41 (21 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

So perhaps my arguments are too abstract for you so let me try and be more clear.:stirpot:

The government has moved most of the country to "semaforo amarillo" using the official numbers as justification for doing so. This has been the premise for allowing higher risk businesses such as bars to open. It is quite clear though that the official numbers don't accurately represent the reality on the ground. It means that it is very unlikely that the contagion rate is less than one as the government claims. Which then means that this reopening has greatly increased the probability that a second larger wave will afflict Mexico before a vaccine can be successfully distributed. The change to "semaforo amarillo" is likely to give people the impression that the danger is passing and that they can begin to relax. This is the same error that places like Florida committed and have led to their dismal situation. It increases the probability that the contagion will be so bad come winter that no matter what numbers the government reports the situation will be so bad that virtually no foreign tourism will want to come here. That worries me tremendously and has the potential to be devastating in many ways for me personally and for many others I imagine.

As far as using one's experience on the ground, I have that as well. I can tell you of several people now in Colonia Paraiso/Limon who are sick with what is likely Covid 19. They aren't going to the hospital because they don't trust that they will get adequate care. Some of their reasons for not going are legitimate and some are born of superstitions and misinformation. I can tell you of a half dozen neighbors in that same neighborhood who likely died of Covid-19 in the last three months and one in the last week. So I have an experience and you have an experience and it seems that there is some contradiction in those experiences. How do we determine which one of us is correct? Is it just my opinion vs. yours or is there a way to objectively find the truth?

You have been very critical of mine and others references to various materials. Spanish articles about the United States are not inaccurate because they are in Spanish. Equally English language articles are not incorrect because they are in English. Opposition news sources are not wrong because they are in opposition. Opinion pieces are not wrong because they are opinion pieces. Political leaders like Donald Trump loves to label anything in opposition to his messaging as "Fake news" and to lift up those that support him. People like Trump abhor scientists who present inconvenient facts and uses political pressure to undermine contrary scientific evidence. I don't accept that kind of reasoning from Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Vicente Fox, or Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. That kind of thinking is how democracies die.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com


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