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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Friday, September 04, 2020, 13:37 (23 days ago) @ hromero

So perhaps my arguments are too abstract for you so let me try and be more clear.:stirpot:

The government has moved most of the country to "semaforo amarillo" using the official numbers as justification for doing so. This has been the premise for allowing higher risk businesses such as bars to open. It is quite clear though that the official numbers don't accurately represent the reality on the ground. It means that it is very unlikely that the contagion rate is less than one as the government claims. Which then means that this reopening has greatly increased the probability that a second larger wave will afflict Mexico before a vaccine can be successfully distributed. The change to "semaforo amarillo" is likely to give people the impression that the danger is passing and that they can begin to relax. This is the same error that places like Florida committed and have led to their dismal situation. It increases the probability that the contagion will be so bad come winter that no matter what numbers the government reports the situation will be so bad that virtually no foreign tourism will want to come here. That worries me tremendously and has the potential to be devastating in many ways for me personally and for many others I imagine.

As far as using one's experience on the ground, I have that as well. I can tell you of several people now in Colonia Paraiso/Limon who are sick with what is likely Covid 19. They aren't going to the hospital because they don't trust that they will get adequate care. Some of their reasons for not going are legitimate and some are born of superstitions and misinformation. I can tell you of a half dozen neighbors in that same neighborhood who likely died of Covid-19 in the last three months and one in the last week. So I have an experience and you have an experience and it seems that there is some contradiction in those experiences. How do we determine which one of us is correct? Is it just my opinion vs. yours or is there a way to objectively find the truth?

You have been very critical of mine and others references to various materials. Spanish articles about the United States are not inaccurate because they are in Spanish. Equally English language articles are not incorrect because they are in English. Opposition news sources are not wrong because they are in opposition. Opinion pieces are not wrong because they are opinion pieces. Political leaders like Donald Trump loves to label anything in opposition to his messaging as "Fake news" and to lift up those that support him. People like Trump abhor scientists who present inconvenient facts and uses political pressure to undermine contrary scientific evidence. I don't accept that kind of reasoning from Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Vicente Fox, or Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. That kind of thinking is how democracies die.

I don't have time for this.

You have NOT posted anything, critique or proposed solution, that takes into account Mexico's poverty, lawlessness, lack of medical resources or other unique socio-economic characteristics but instead have judged Mexico mostly based on politics, such as claiming Mexico did not respond seriously because its president made a joke about having magical talismans or because he did not wear a facemask. Those are intentional distortions based on politics.

I judge Mexico's media based on around 50 years of reading, watching and listening to numerous sources, watching them come, go, rise, fall, and spread all kinds of propaganda for all kinds of reasons. Good guys have become bad guys and vice versa, reliable reporters have fallen from grace after being caught falsifying evidence (such as Carlos Loret de Mora whom you've cited or who has been cited in some of your links).

I am an existentialist who can make my arguments based on my cumulative knowledge and experience, not the latest scandalous report in a media whose primary goal is to sell advertising. Trends are more important to me than incidents, or numbers without context.

I'm afraid your friends in El Limón have to take responsibility for their own actions or lack thereof. My wife has been to the markets almost every single day since this pandemia began. She and I have have also been to the hospital on numerous occasions, and we just returned from Acapulco for the third time since the pandemia began. Presidente López Obrador has flown commercial class all over the country and to the USA. What do we all have in common? We have taken the warnings and advice of the federal government seriously since they were first issued. Almost everyone who has contracted the illness apart from first responders have not.

(Now please don't go find reports of exceptions to this generalized comment. I am not going to keep replying simply because I have different ways of seeing and dealing with the world around us than other people ha you disagree with or don't understand. I make no claims to being omnipotent, genius or perfect, but I am more often right than wrong.)

Knowing people who might have died from Covid-19 is not experience. Confirmation via testing, which you keep insisting upon, is the only reliable way to know. I'm surprised to see you contradict yourself. I believe no one in Mexico has any doubt there are more people ill and dying than official numbers report. The SSA itself says the same thing. It doesn't make them unreliable as you keep claiming. Quite the contrary. Like I, they place importance not on the numbers themselves but on he CONTEXT, TRENDS, and TENDENCIES.

Mexico's people must work. People would rather risk dying than continue watching their families starve to death. I agree bars shouldn't be opening, but that doesn't' make the move to Semáforo Amarillo unwarranted.

(I get it that you and Christian want to use Chump comparisons to provoke a reaction from me. This is me not taking the bait.)


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