Gloomy About The Future Of Mexico...

by Scott ⌂, Mérida, Yucatán, Friday, February 18, 2011, 16:34 (3902 days ago) @ michoacan

The only hope for Mexico is if the people get fed up and the pendulum swings back after their experiment with neoliberalism, perhaps going as far as joining the "Pink Tide", but even just getting rid of the neocon sh*t disturbers and returning to some sort of covert management of the cartels by the government, as in the past. I have little expectation that things will even begin to improve until the current administration is history and the PRI is returned to power. By the time the 2012 election comes Mexico will have to do some serious soul searching and reflect on the failures and few successes of Calderon's offensive against the cartels during his sexenio. We already know Calderon's strategy, and it's not likely to change much between now and the end of his term. He wouldn't want to admit defeat, would he? The turning point will be after the 2012 election when the next administration comes to power. They will be able to modify the strategy. They probably wouldn't relax the militarization overnight, but slowly things might get better. Even if the PAN wins again, it would be a new administration, and they would probably reassess the strategy of their predecessors.

I don't know that they would want to declare martial law sometime in the not-so-distant future when they are gearing up for the 2012 election campaign. Calderon's strategy would look like a complete and utter failure if he launched his offensive against Michoacan just days after coming to power in 2006, and ended his term in 2012 with the country under martial law.

They could end this charade whenever they want by taking steps to legalize, sending the troops back to their barracks, showing some spine when it comes to dealing with the US government, and using their resources to fight real crime like kidnapping and extortion, not victimless moral crimes like the consumption, production or transportation of marijuana.

I'm coming to see it all as a complex, interwoven situation that at its core goes back to Mexico buying in to US (Washington Consensus) ideals back in the early 1990s with the negotiation of NAFTA for example, and now they are dealing with the results/consequences of that decision. They knew perfectly well that allowing in heavily subsidized US agricultural products duty free would wreck havoc in the Mexican countryside, but they thought that was an acceptable trade-off, that the campesinos would all go get jobs in maquiladoras along the border or something. It apparently didn't occur to anyone that these disaffected people would be just as likely to go work for the cartels. I don't think they're going to solve the drug issue now without addressing the other underlying root causes. Including what the hell would possess a person to do all those grotesque things that are going on, the Blog del Narco worthy things that I don't even feel comfortable repeating here.

Right next door to Mexico there is a nation that is so safe that the peacefulness of the countryside there must be almost inconceivable to the average Mexican and US American. Heavy handed tactics such as martial law can and do work if you don't mind living in a police state. I'd rather not but that means instead coming up with better, long-term and pragmatic solutions.

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