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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Wednesday, September 02, 2020, 18:23 (29 days ago)

This link is to an article (in Spanish) that talks about the number of deaths that exceed corresponding numbers from prior years. Barring unusual events the number of deaths per day in a country can be pretty predictable. Unfortunately we in Mexico have been seeing an unusual number of deaths around the country from April through July. We can't know for sure that all of those excess deaths were due to Covid-19 but it is the primary suspect.

I provide this information only for the purpose of providing information for those who are interested in knowing it.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Wednesday, September 02, 2020, 19:47 (28 days ago) @ hromero

This link is to an article (in Spanish) that talks about the number of deaths that exceed corresponding numbers from prior years. Barring unusual events the number of deaths per day in a country can be pretty predictable. Unfortunately we in Mexico have been seeing an unusual number of deaths around the country from April through July. We can't know for sure that all of those excess deaths were due to Covid-19 but it is the primary suspect.

I provide this information only for the purpose of providing information for those who are interested in knowing it.

In Guerrero the highest rate of infections and deaths are in the communities of the Costa Chica where autodefensas, against the recommendations of Subsecretario de Salud Dr. Hugo López-Gatell, set up filtros sanitarios to "control" the spread of Covid-19. As was predicted by Dr. López-Gatell, the increased contact of such measures results in increased incidences of contagion. Exactly the opposite of what the autodefensas are trying to do.

Since you've criticized the federal government's response, what would you recommend they do differently?

As I've stated before, Mexico's limited resources and other unique characteristics and problems limit its viable responses, yet there remains a steady stream of criticism from political rivals though no one offers a course of action they would take. Your "source" is a political magazine, not a medical one.

So more testing would show us more contagions and more deaths attributed to the virus. Fairly useless numbers without context, yet the context in which the federal government bases its response is ignored by its critics. Numbers in the absence of context are confusing at best and often used as grounds for criticism. The reality on the ground is reflected in the trends, and the downward trends don't reflect a lack of testing but rather what medical professionals are dealing with. The reason there may be more deaths attributed to the virus than reflected in the official count is due to the inability to test all suspicious deaths coupled with the FACT that it often isn't Covid-19 that kills the infected person but their OTHER health issues. Often a difficult call by the medical examiner. I expect there are degrees of this same issue worldwide. IMHO, the TOTALS aren't what's important, the TRENDS are.

But thanks for sharing! B-)

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Wednesday, September 02, 2020, 21:48 (28 days ago) @ ZihuaRob


In Guerrero the highest rate of infections and deaths are in the communities of the Costa Chica where autodefensas, against the recommendations of Subsecretario de Salud Dr. Hugo López-Gatell, set up filtros sanitarios to "control" the spread of Covid-19. As was predicted by Dr. López-Gatell, the increased contact of such measures results in increased incidences of contagion. Exactly the opposite of what the autodefensas are trying to do.

How do you or anyone know where the highest rates of infection are without testing?

Since you've criticized the federal government's response, what would you recommend they do differently?

I have presented the recommendations of leading health professionals from around the world and from countries that have more successfully fought this pandemic. Testing in conjunction with contact tracing, obligatory isolation for positive cases, and following sanitary precautions in public spaces seem to be the most effective methods at the moment for controlling the spread of this virus. Taiwan, South Korea, Uruguay, Rwanda and several European countries have shown the way scientifically. Those countries all have varying levels of resources and have shown that vast resources are not necessary to successfully contain the virus. I don't buy the argument that Mexico doesn't have the resources to engage a successful campaign. I have provided many many links to in previous posts from a variety of sources to show why I think that and to show that I am not just asserting it from my gut. It seems to me that the reason the current administration hasn't devoted the resources is because early on they didn't take it seriously and they were more worried about harming the economy than fighting a uncertain threat. Fine, we can all be forgiven for not appreciating the threat in the early days. Once the threat became clearer though, this government decided to "stay the course" rather than adapt because they had expended a considerable amount of political capital in saying that the virus would not be a problem for Mexico for a variety of reasons. The extent of the pandemic has shown the error of that assessment.

As I've stated before, Mexico's limited resources and other unique characteristics and problems limit its viable responses, yet there remains a steady stream of criticism from political rivals though no one offers a course of action they would take. Your "source" is a political magazine, not a medical one.

AnimalPolitico is one of the few news sources that does not accept advertising from the political parties in Mexico in an attempt to retain their independence from them. The article I linked to makes no effort to place blame on any entities, it is simply reporting on facts about this situation. I like this news source because they are committed to a true journalistic approach to the news and politics. Their articles regularly fact check politicians of all political parties and generally seem to be focused on just reporting the facts. I am not claiming that they are completely unbiased because I don't think that is possible from any individual or organization. They seem to do a much better job than the majority of news organizations here in Mexico which are often quite obvious about their political leanings. I have presented links to the opinions of medical professionals in prior posts and you said something to the effect of "I don't care what any other medical professional says, I am listening to Dr. Hugo Lopez-Gatell...". I hope you can see why I might feel frustrated by your responses.

So more testing would show us more contagions and more deaths attributed to the virus. Fairly useless numbers without context, yet the context in which the federal government bases its response is ignored by its critics. Numbers in the absence of context are confusing at best and often used as grounds for criticism. The reality on the ground is reflected in the trends, and the downward trends don't reflect a lack of testing but rather what medical professionals are dealing with. The reason there may be more deaths attributed to the virus than reflected in the official count is due to the inability to test all suspicious deaths coupled with the FACT that it often isn't Covid-19 that kills the infected person but their OTHER health issues. Often a difficult call by the medical examiner. I expect there are degrees of this same issue worldwide. IMHO, the TOTALS aren't what's important, the TRENDS are.

So if there isn't testing how do we know if the trends are actually going down? Is that just a gut feeling. Is it because the amulets in AMLO's wallet tell him so?:stirpot: I am completely baffled by how anyone can say that we don't need testing then say that because we aren't testing as much we can see that infections are decreasing. I will be watching data sets like this to see if that is true or not. I will not just be taking the word of people who have a political agenda.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Wednesday, September 02, 2020, 22:23 (28 days ago) @ hromero


In Guerrero the highest rate of infections and deaths are in the communities of the Costa Chica where autodefensas, against the recommendations of Subsecretario de Salud Dr. Hugo López-Gatell, set up filtros sanitarios to "control" the spread of Covid-19. As was predicted by Dr. López-Gatell, the increased contact of such measures results in increased incidences of contagion. Exactly the opposite of what the autodefensas are trying to do.


How do you or anyone know where the highest rates of infection are without testing?

Since you've criticized the federal government's response, what would you recommend they do differently?


I have presented the recommendations of leading health professionals from around the world and from countries that have more successfully fought this pandemic. Testing in conjunction with contact tracing, obligatory isolation for positive cases, and following sanitary precautions in public spaces seem to be the most effective methods at the moment for controlling the spread of this virus.

All policies Mexico has implemented successfully.

Taiwan, South Korea, Uruguay, Rwanda and several European countries have shown the way scientifically. Those countries all have varying levels of resources and have shown that vast resources are not necessary to successfully contain the virus. I don't buy the argument that Mexico doesn't have the resources to engage a successful campaign. I have provided many many links to in previous posts from a variety of sources to show why I think that and to show that I am not just asserting it from my gut. It seems to me that the reason the current administration hasn't devoted the resources is because early on they didn't take it seriously and they were more worried about harming the economy than fighting a uncertain

Patently not true. From the first days of February Mexico responded. You appear to be referring to the States. What Mexico DID do was wait until contagions actually started showing up among the population before closing the economy. A whole month they waited from the first handful of infected people returning mostly from the USA and Italy in early February until early March. Tracing was carried out and the virus remained contained. I recall with crystal clarity the day the contingencia sanitaria was declared because I was at a medical center in Acapulco where already we were practicing social distancing.

Fine, we can all be forgiven for not appreciating the threat in the early days. Once the threat became clearer though, this government decided to "stay the course" rather than adapt because they had expended a considerable amount of political capital in saying that the virus would not be a problem for Mexico for a variety of reasons. The extent of the pandemic has shown the error of that assessment.

Again, patently not true, though it was what AMLO’s political opponents were declaring publicly, especially to foreign media.

As I've stated before, Mexico's limited resources and other unique characteristics and problems limit its viable responses, yet there remains a steady stream of criticism from political rivals though no one offers a course of action they would take. Your "source" is a political magazine, not a medical one.

AnimalPolitico is one of the few news sources that does not accept advertising from the political parties in Mexico in an attempt to retain their independence from them. The article I linked to makes no effort to place blame on any entities, it is simply reporting on facts about this situation. I like this news source because they are committed to a true journalistic approach to the news and politics. Their articles regularly fact check politicians of all political parties and generally seem to be focused on just reporting the facts. I am not claiming that they are completely unbiased because I don't think that is possible from any individual or organization. They seem to do a much better job than the majority of news organizations here in Mexico which are often quite obvious about their political leanings. I have presented links to the opinions of medical professionals in prior posts and you said something to the effect of "I don't care what any other medical professional says, I am listening to Dr. Hugo Lopez-Gatell...". I hope you can see why I might feel frustrated by your responses.

So more testing would show us more contagions and more deaths attributed to the virus. Fairly useless numbers without context, yet the context in which the federal government bases its response is ignored by its critics. Numbers in the absence of context are confusing at best and often used as grounds for criticism. The reality on the ground is reflected in the trends, and the downward trends don't reflect a lack of testing but rather what medical professionals are dealing with. The reason there may be more deaths attributed to the virus than reflected in the official count is due to the inability to test all suspicious deaths coupled with the FACT that it often isn't Covid-19 that kills the infected person but their OTHER health issues. Often a difficult call by the medical examiner. I expect there are degrees of this same issue worldwide. IMHO, the TOTALS aren't what's important, the TRENDS are.

So if there isn't testing how do we know if the trends are actually going down? Is that just a gut feeling. Is it because the amulets in AMLO's wallet tell him so?:stirpot: I am completely baffled by how anyone can say that we don't need testing then say that because we aren't testing as much we can see that infections are decreasing. I will be watching data sets like this to see if that is true or not. I will not just be taking the word of people who have a political agenda.

There IS and always has been testing when patients present symptoms. Random testing has not been used for lack of resources. Doctors see trends when patients show up with symptoms. I’m surprised you even made such a comment. Dr. Hugo López-Gatell and the Secretaría de Salud are most definitely not carrying out any political agenda. Another totally false claim that describes the USA, not Mexico.

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Wednesday, September 02, 2020, 22:39 (28 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

So waiting until there was community contagion to do something is the hallmark of a successful response?

You make assertions that my statements are untrue despite my links in many posts that give evidence to my claims. I find your responses lacking a similar level evidence and therefore find them unconvincing.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 04:20 (28 days ago) @ hromero

So waiting until there was community contagion to do something is the hallmark of a successful response?

You make assertions that my statements are untrue despite my links in many posts that give evidence to my claims. I find your responses lacking a similar level evidence and therefore find them unconvincing.

No, waiting for community contagion was a condition to moving from one phase to another of the federal government’s response.

Excuse me, amigo, but I don’t believe your links, many based on biased and erroneous media articles, make the case you seem to believe they do. I have based my arguments on experience and existential events including the various responses by the federal government and Mexico’s socio-economic and other unique characteristics.

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by midalake @, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 08:38 (28 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

So waiting until there was community contagion to do something is the hallmark of a successful response?

You make assertions that my statements are untrue despite my links in many posts that give evidence to my claims. I find your responses lacking a similar level evidence and therefore find them unconvincing.


No, waiting for community contagion was a condition to moving from one phase to another of the federal government’s response.

Excuse me, amigo, but I don’t believe your links, many based on biased and erroneous media articles, make the case you seem to believe they do. I have based my arguments on experience and existential events including the various responses by the federal government and Mexico’s socio-economic and other unique characteristics.

I think it is pretty clear rob that no one believes the official number at 66,000. Mexico is a third world country and the reporting just is not there. HECK I do not believe the U.S. numbers at 190,000 dead. It is absolutely more.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So Rob what number would be plausible to you?

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 09:47 (28 days ago) @ midalake

So waiting until there was community contagion to do something is the hallmark of a successful response?

You make assertions that my statements are untrue despite my links in many posts that give evidence to my claims. I find your responses lacking a similar level evidence and therefore find them unconvincing.


No, waiting for community contagion was a condition to moving from one phase to another of the federal government’s response.

Excuse me, amigo, but I don’t believe your links, many based on biased and erroneous media articles, make the case you seem to believe they do. I have based my arguments on experience and existential events including the various responses by the federal government and Mexico’s socio-economic and other unique characteristics.


I think it is pretty clear rob that no one believes the official number at 66,000. Mexico is a third world country and the reporting just is not there. HECK I do not believe the U.S. numbers at 190,000 dead. It is absolutely more.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So Rob what number would be plausible to you?

You aren’t getting my point. It isn’t about the numbers.

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by midalake @, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 10:04 (28 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

So waiting until there was community contagion to do something is the hallmark of a successful response?

You make assertions that my statements are untrue despite my links in many posts that give evidence to my claims. I find your responses lacking a similar level evidence and therefore find them unconvincing.


No, waiting for community contagion was a condition to moving from one phase to another of the federal government’s response.

Excuse me, amigo, but I don’t believe your links, many based on biased and erroneous media articles, make the case you seem to believe they do. I have based my arguments on experience and existential events including the various responses by the federal government and Mexico’s socio-economic and other unique characteristics.


I think it is pretty clear rob that no one believes the official number at 66,000. Mexico is a third world country and the reporting just is not there. HECK I do not believe the U.S. numbers at 190,000 dead. It is absolutely more.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So Rob what number would be plausible to you?

> You aren’t getting my point. It isn’t about the numbers.


For me, and my life, lifestyle, and travel. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE NUMBERS!

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by cd69 @, Winnipeg,MB,Canada, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 11:44 (28 days ago) @ midalake

No kidding! No offense but Trump said the same at one point, ie that the numbers did not matter. We all know what happened next! You may need context to these numbers but they absolutely matters, at least to any real scientist.

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 17:52 (28 days ago) @ cd69

No kidding! No offense but Trump said the same at one point, ie that the numbers did not matter. We all know what happened next! You may need context to these numbers but they absolutely matters, at least to any real scientist.

So the numbers matter. Please elaborate what you think they mean, because I qualified my comment, but maybe my argument is too abstract for you all (I don’t think so) or maybe you simply aren’t reading what I say carefully enough but instead seeing what you want to see.

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When Crickets Roar

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Friday, September 04, 2020, 08:58 (27 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

As I suspected would happen, the crickets are roaring.

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When Crickets Research

by Bonnie, wherever you go, there you are..., Friday, September 04, 2020, 09:41 (27 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

Here's a new set of #'s off last night's news. Give us a chance to do some research on the rest, you know, so we can get it correct? :-D

Mexico leads world in COVID-19 deaths among healthcare workers

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Crickets Continue Roaring

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Friday, September 04, 2020, 09:58 (27 days ago) @ Bonnie

Here's a new set of #'s off last night's news. Give us a chance to do some research on the rest, you know, so we can get it correct? :-D

Mexico leads world in COVID-19 deaths among healthcare workers

Uh huh. No surprise the anti-AMLO English language news would report that.

Ssa responde a señalamientos de Amnistía Internacional sobre muertes del personal de salud

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When Crickets Roar

by hromero ⌂ @, Friday, September 04, 2020, 12:43 (27 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

Have you considered joining the communications team of Donald Trump? They enjoy this sort of disingenuous and inflammatory commentary.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

When Crickets Roar

by cd69 @, Winnipeg,MB,Canada, Friday, September 04, 2020, 22:51 (26 days ago) @ hromero

Frankly this is one of the reason I stay out of it these days but I just could not hold it back...It does not seem to matter what the argument is brought forward so why bother...

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When Crickets Roar

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 09:26 (26 days ago) @ cd69

Frankly this is one of the reason I stay out of it these days but I just could not hold it back...It does not seem to matter what the argument is brought forward so why bother...

Well that makes a lot of sense... NOT. But hey, it's better than posting an empty ME GUSTA. You still never responded to my original question to you about the significance of the numbers.

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Friday, September 04, 2020, 12:41 (27 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

So perhaps my arguments are too abstract for you so let me try and be more clear.:stirpot:

The government has moved most of the country to "semaforo amarillo" using the official numbers as justification for doing so. This has been the premise for allowing higher risk businesses such as bars to open. It is quite clear though that the official numbers don't accurately represent the reality on the ground. It means that it is very unlikely that the contagion rate is less than one as the government claims. Which then means that this reopening has greatly increased the probability that a second larger wave will afflict Mexico before a vaccine can be successfully distributed. The change to "semaforo amarillo" is likely to give people the impression that the danger is passing and that they can begin to relax. This is the same error that places like Florida committed and have led to their dismal situation. It increases the probability that the contagion will be so bad come winter that no matter what numbers the government reports the situation will be so bad that virtually no foreign tourism will want to come here. That worries me tremendously and has the potential to be devastating in many ways for me personally and for many others I imagine.

As far as using one's experience on the ground, I have that as well. I can tell you of several people now in Colonia Paraiso/Limon who are sick with what is likely Covid 19. They aren't going to the hospital because they don't trust that they will get adequate care. Some of their reasons for not going are legitimate and some are born of superstitions and misinformation. I can tell you of a half dozen neighbors in that same neighborhood who likely died of Covid-19 in the last three months and one in the last week. So I have an experience and you have an experience and it seems that there is some contradiction in those experiences. How do we determine which one of us is correct? Is it just my opinion vs. yours or is there a way to objectively find the truth?

You have been very critical of mine and others references to various materials. Spanish articles about the United States are not inaccurate because they are in Spanish. Equally English language articles are not incorrect because they are in English. Opposition news sources are not wrong because they are in opposition. Opinion pieces are not wrong because they are opinion pieces. Political leaders like Donald Trump loves to label anything in opposition to his messaging as "Fake news" and to lift up those that support him. People like Trump abhor scientists who present inconvenient facts and uses political pressure to undermine contrary scientific evidence. I don't accept that kind of reasoning from Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Vicente Fox, or Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. That kind of thinking is how democracies die.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Friday, September 04, 2020, 13:37 (27 days ago) @ hromero

So perhaps my arguments are too abstract for you so let me try and be more clear.:stirpot:

The government has moved most of the country to "semaforo amarillo" using the official numbers as justification for doing so. This has been the premise for allowing higher risk businesses such as bars to open. It is quite clear though that the official numbers don't accurately represent the reality on the ground. It means that it is very unlikely that the contagion rate is less than one as the government claims. Which then means that this reopening has greatly increased the probability that a second larger wave will afflict Mexico before a vaccine can be successfully distributed. The change to "semaforo amarillo" is likely to give people the impression that the danger is passing and that they can begin to relax. This is the same error that places like Florida committed and have led to their dismal situation. It increases the probability that the contagion will be so bad come winter that no matter what numbers the government reports the situation will be so bad that virtually no foreign tourism will want to come here. That worries me tremendously and has the potential to be devastating in many ways for me personally and for many others I imagine.

As far as using one's experience on the ground, I have that as well. I can tell you of several people now in Colonia Paraiso/Limon who are sick with what is likely Covid 19. They aren't going to the hospital because they don't trust that they will get adequate care. Some of their reasons for not going are legitimate and some are born of superstitions and misinformation. I can tell you of a half dozen neighbors in that same neighborhood who likely died of Covid-19 in the last three months and one in the last week. So I have an experience and you have an experience and it seems that there is some contradiction in those experiences. How do we determine which one of us is correct? Is it just my opinion vs. yours or is there a way to objectively find the truth?

You have been very critical of mine and others references to various materials. Spanish articles about the United States are not inaccurate because they are in Spanish. Equally English language articles are not incorrect because they are in English. Opposition news sources are not wrong because they are in opposition. Opinion pieces are not wrong because they are opinion pieces. Political leaders like Donald Trump loves to label anything in opposition to his messaging as "Fake news" and to lift up those that support him. People like Trump abhor scientists who present inconvenient facts and uses political pressure to undermine contrary scientific evidence. I don't accept that kind of reasoning from Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Vicente Fox, or Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. That kind of thinking is how democracies die.

I don't have time for this.

You have NOT posted anything, critique or proposed solution, that takes into account Mexico's poverty, lawlessness, lack of medical resources or other unique socio-economic characteristics but instead have judged Mexico mostly based on politics, such as claiming Mexico did not respond seriously because its president made a joke about having magical talismans or because he did not wear a facemask. Those are intentional distortions based on politics.

I judge Mexico's media based on around 50 years of reading, watching and listening to numerous sources, watching them come, go, rise, fall, and spread all kinds of propaganda for all kinds of reasons. Good guys have become bad guys and vice versa, reliable reporters have fallen from grace after being caught falsifying evidence (such as Carlos Loret de Mora whom you've cited or who has been cited in some of your links).

I am an existentialist who can make my arguments based on my cumulative knowledge and experience, not the latest scandalous report in a media whose primary goal is to sell advertising. Trends are more important to me than incidents, or numbers without context.

I'm afraid your friends in El Limón have to take responsibility for their own actions or lack thereof. My wife has been to the markets almost every single day since this pandemia began. She and I have have also been to the hospital on numerous occasions, and we just returned from Acapulco for the third time since the pandemia began. Presidente López Obrador has flown commercial class all over the country and to the USA. What do we all have in common? We have taken the warnings and advice of the federal government seriously since they were first issued. Almost everyone who has contracted the illness apart from first responders have not.

(Now please don't go find reports of exceptions to this generalized comment. I am not going to keep replying simply because I have different ways of seeing and dealing with the world around us than other people ha you disagree with or don't understand. I make no claims to being omnipotent, genius or perfect, but I am more often right than wrong.)

Knowing people who might have died from Covid-19 is not experience. Confirmation via testing, which you keep insisting upon, is the only reliable way to know. I'm surprised to see you contradict yourself. I believe no one in Mexico has any doubt there are more people ill and dying than official numbers report. The SSA itself says the same thing. It doesn't make them unreliable as you keep claiming. Quite the contrary. Like I, they place importance not on the numbers themselves but on he CONTEXT, TRENDS, and TENDENCIES.

Mexico's people must work. People would rather risk dying than continue watching their families starve to death. I agree bars shouldn't be opening, but that doesn't' make the move to Semáforo Amarillo unwarranted.

(I get it that you and Christian want to use Chump comparisons to provoke a reaction from me. This is me not taking the bait.)

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Friday, September 04, 2020, 13:59 (27 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

I agree that the people in Limon/paraiso need to take responsibility, and I never said they were my friends. We too have been out and about following precautions and even accepting a very few guests and thankfully have remained healthy. Unfortunately not everyone is doing so. I am not convinced that the messaging from the government has been as clear as you would like to make it out to be.

As a side note we haven't even had a little cold which is unusual for both of us to go nearly 9 months without some kind of sniffle. Perhaps a side benefit of all the social distancing we have been engaging in.

I was not contradicting myself about testing. It has been you that has been saying all along that testing was a waste of resources for Mexico and I was using examples to show you why it is important and how the government is making decisions on incomplete data. I am sorry if that was too abstract. Sometimes our own personal knowledge and experience are not sufficient. Numbers, with context, are important for assessing situations we haven't experienced before. Covid-19 is an example of a scenario that none of us have experience with so it requires something more than personal knowledge and experience. You may think the numbers I have provided are without context but I think that I have provided much context.

You say you don't have time for this but post a comment that is derogatory to those of us who didn't have the time to respond quickly to your post.

I don't use Chump comparisons to bait you but because I genuinely see similarities in your responses as it relates to this topic. I in no way think that you are anywhere close to that Orange Cheeto head in personality, intelligence or countenance. I am just genuinely frustrated with the approach that you are taking to this particular topic. It is obvious that you are equally frustrated with my approach.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Friday, September 04, 2020, 14:52 (27 days ago) @ hromero

I agree that the people in Limon/paraiso need to take responsibility, and I never said they were my friends. We too have been out and about following precautions and even accepting a very few guests and thankfully have remained healthy. Unfortunately not everyone is doing so. I am not convinced that the messaging from the government has been as clear as you would like to make it out to be.

As a side note we haven't even had a little cold which is unusual for both of us to go nearly 9 months without some kind of sniffle. Perhaps a side benefit of all the social distancing we have been engaging in.

I was not contradicting myself about testing. It has been you that has been saying all along that testing was a waste of resources for Mexico and I was using examples to show you why it is important and how the government is making decisions on incomplete data. I am sorry if that was too abstract. Sometimes our own personal knowledge and experience are not sufficient. Numbers, with context, are important for assessing situations we haven't experienced before. Covid-19 is an example of a scenario that none of us have experience with so it requires something more than personal knowledge and experience. You may think the numbers I have provided are without context but I think that I have provided much context.

AGAIN, I did not put it that way. I qualified my comment and you keep ignoring that qualification. Since Mexico doesn't have enough facilities, personnel or resources to do mass random testing, it has taken a different approach in order not to waste what precious resources it has.

And I don't recall you qualifying any numbers. I post numbers every single day, and I often qualify them to put them into context. I've seen no one else do so here. Even if the numbers are three times what's being reported, they pale in comparison with Florida which is likely to be using intentionally misleading numbers since The Chump and the governor of Florida have been found to intentionally manipulate official reporting.

You say you don't have time for this but post a comment that is derogatory to those of us who didn't have the time to respond quickly to your post.

I dislike having to repeat myself over and over because, again, you claim I make comments without the qualifiers so that you paint my comments out of context and incorrectly. I feel like we're having the same discussion as we did months ago. I believe readers here will see the same thing.

I don't use Chump comparisons to bait you but because I genuinely see similarities in your responses as it relates to this topic. I in no way think that you are anywhere close to that Orange Cheeto head in personality, intelligence or countenance. I am just genuinely frustrated with the approach that you are taking to this particular topic. It is obvious that you are equally frustrated with my approach.

You see what you want to see. I have stated that numerous times. It's called having preconceived notions aka prejudice. I'm replying to you as best as I can because I have much respect for you and consider you a valued friend. But I am incredibly busy, much more so than normal, and I'm also dealing with a faulty teclado that is really frustrating. That's why I made the comment. I usually don't mention my personal issues, but at the moment I'm burning the candle at both ends and in the middle as so many of us here in Mexico are just trying to survive this damn virus.

Un saludo y un abrazo, amigo.

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by cd69 @, Winnipeg,MB,Canada, Friday, September 04, 2020, 22:58 (26 days ago) @ hromero

Very well put! And if the numbers are climbing in the next couple months and some tourism resume, it is likely going to be a double whammy as right now one of the largest contributor to the spread of covid19 here is travelers and I can't see why it would be different in Mexico. So you would get hit with local spread of the virus and from tourism from the US and Canada. That is one of the biggest fear for most of my local friends involved in businesses catering to tourists.

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by midalake @, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 09:14 (26 days ago) @ cd69

Very well put! And if the numbers are climbing in the next couple months and some tourism resume, it is likely going to be a double whammy as right now one of the largest contributor to the spread of covid19 here is travelers and I can't see why it would be different in Mexico. So you would get hit with local spread of the virus and from tourism from the US and Canada. That is one of the biggest fear for most of my local friends involved in businesses catering to tourists.

:megusta:

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 09:51 (26 days ago) @ cd69

Very well put! And if the numbers are climbing in the next couple months and some tourism resume, it is likely going to be a double whammy as right now one of the largest contributor to the spread of covid19 here is travelers and I can't see why it would be different in Mexico. So you would get hit with local spread of the virus and from tourism from the US and Canada. That is one of the biggest fear for most of my local friends involved in businesses catering to tourists.

Really? Gee, that's exactly what I've been saying. So why is everyone disagreeing with me if you just repeated what I've been saying for MONTHS now?

That's why I've been describing the measures people ARE taking and praising the work being done to protect our visitors. The hotels and restaurants aren't the places getting hit with sick workers. It's been the people who refuse to wear facemasks, including visitors, and now that the bars are open they will be a focus of infection for their patrons and workers, as we who are here can witness first hand and exactly as I have been predicting. Can't fix stupid, but I don't praise or promote stupid here. I have been trying to inform you all what IS working and where safe practices ARE being observed and what trends and tendencies ARE occurring.

People here in Zihuatanejo and the Costa Grande must get back to work because otherwise they will starve, and many people here including our elderly friends and neighbors are currently living without electricity, phones and water because they can't pay their bills. So hell yes I want tourists to return and know where is safe and where isn't and what measures are being taken. But our numbers aren't just raw data to be compared with other places beyond mentioning that the entire country of Mexico is about on par with the state of Florida. And that's why I take exception with people referring to the numbers while ignoring or being unable to express their significance. When I try to explain their significance some of you have criticized me without offering your own explanation other than citing other countries with different circumstances.

While some tourists may be Covidiots, it is simply not that difficult to follow sanitary practices, and doing so pretty much guarantees that folks can enjoy their vacations here without infecting themselves or others with this damn virus.

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 14:59 (26 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

You keep referring to trends Rob as if I also haven't been addressing that issue and perhaps that is because you haven't had time to follow the links I have shared. So I am going to attempt this one more time and try to illustrate with graphs from those links.

Here is a graph of the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 cases in Mexico.
[image]
Looks good right. Confirmed cases have started to decline and the trend is downward. This is what the government is using to base its loosening of restrictions. Except there is a problem. For some inexplicable reason the government started reducing the number of tests being done. This despite the fact that the trend had been on a continued upward trajectory.
[image]

Meanwhile the excessive number of deaths also shows a continued upward trend.
[image]

The number of deaths for August aren't yet available and it will be interesting to see their trend.

Bottom line, I agree with you about the significance of trends. I think what we disagree about is what the trend actually is. Does this answer your questions about the numbers, context and trends? If not, then what am I missing?

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 16:49 (26 days ago) @ hromero

Oh, now we agree but I’m still wrong?

I see graphs that describe exactly what I’ve been describing day after day, week after week, month after month. Don’t you agree?

Why do you erroneously assume I am unaware of the content of the links you post? Apparently we just interpret the data differently, and you’ve got more vociferous cheerleaders than I do. No problem, but don’t expect me not to continue pointing that out. That’s all I’ve done here.

Saludos, and Happy Kentucky Derby Day, y’all!

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by hromero ⌂ @, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 17:02 (26 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

I don't know how your take away is that we agree. I don't see it. As I have understood your assertions you have been advocating that the official numbers accurately indicate that infections are on a downward trend and that they represent a successful response to this pandemic. My points have been that the numbers are vastly understated and that the lack of testing doesn't allow the government to have an accurate picture of what is actually happening and some independent data sets appear to show that in fact the trend may be continuing upwards.

You aren't reading my words closely if you think I assumed you haven't seen the content in my links.

--
Humberto Romero
www.casaarcoiriszihuatanejo.com

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by Fuceneh @, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 18:36 (25 days ago) @ hromero

You say tomato He says tomate.

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by Bonnie, wherever you go, there you are..., Thursday, September 03, 2020, 12:57 (28 days ago) @ midalake

:megusta:

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by cd69 @, Winnipeg,MB,Canada, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 11:43 (28 days ago) @ midalake

:megusta:

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by nicatnit, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 09:35 (26 days ago) @ midalake

It’s hard to make sense of any of the numbers. You state the number is the US at 190,000 is low. How can you possibly know? The Covid-19 coding in hospitals comes with a financial incentive in the US, so an argument can be made that the number of deaths is overstated. Also, people can and do die everyday in nursing homes of many many other causes, but right now Covid has become the go to cause of death. But what is the point of arguing about the numbers. To me the numbers are all about politics and proving how bad the response is, whether it be the US or Mexico or any other country for that matter.
The truth is there is no way to know what these numbers mean, but what matters is reducing the spread of the virus while we wait for vaccines to become available.

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Interpreting Numbers

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 10:06 (26 days ago) @ nicatnit

It’s hard to make sense of any of the numbers. You state the number is the US at 190,000 is low. How can you possibly know? The Covid-19 coding in hospitals comes with a financial incentive in the US, so an argument can be made that the number of deaths is overstated. Also, people can and do die everyday in nursing homes of many many other causes, but right now Covid has become the go to cause of death. But what is the point of arguing about the numbers. To me the numbers are all about politics and proving how bad the response is, whether it be the US or Mexico or any other country for that matter.
The truth is there is no way to know what these numbers mean, but what matters is reducing the spread of the virus while we wait for vaccines to become available.

Nick, the numbers can inform us of trends and tendencies. Each time there is a wave of contagion it can often be traced to irresponsible people, Covidiots, like the movement of your fellow Chump supporters declaring defiance to wearing masks, for example.

Whether there have been a thousand or three thousand infections in Zihuatanejo is not as important as what the rate of infection or the rate of transmission is over a two-week period, which seems to be the general incubation period of the virus.

When most people wear facemasks and practice safe sanitary measures (i.e. social distancing, handwashing, not touching objects others might touch then touching their face etc.) the tendencies have been for the transmission of the virus to go down. Getting the transfer rate below one is basically the definition of getting the virus under control. When for two-week periods at a time the rate of infection falls, it generally means we're on the right path. When hospitals are no longer overwhelmed or even very busy with Covid-19 patients but instead have more and more beds and respirators freed up, it suggests the virus is being contained. Those are some of the things the numbers can tell us that apparently none of my critics were able to explain to me when challenged to do so.

Interpreting Numbers

by nicatnit, Saturday, September 05, 2020, 19:59 (25 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

I get your point and agree. Reports of new cases and getting the case counts lower makes sense. And I cannot disagree about the resistance of right leaning people to wear masks as a sign of defiance is just plain stupid. I regret that in March, our chief medical expert, Dr. Fauci, downplayed the importance of wearing masks. Conventional wisdom at the time leaned into the idea that we had to direct PPE to medical professionals and front line responders when face coverings can be easily made. A simple measure like blocking the cough and sneeze could and would have had a huge effect on the society at large if adopted way back then, instead of late in the game. If the simple concept of wearing a mask as a sign of respect for others wellbeing was adopted early many lives may have been saved. That a mask might not prevent a person from contracting the virus, but might prevent one from spreading the virus is a simple concept that should have been realized at the beginning. But back to your point, no one has refuted your reasoning because your reasoning is sound.

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by cd69 @, Winnipeg,MB,Canada, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 11:42 (28 days ago) @ hromero

:megusta:

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Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by Bonnie, wherever you go, there you are..., Thursday, September 03, 2020, 12:56 (28 days ago) @ hromero

:megusta:

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by Jenny, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 17:27 (28 days ago) @ Bonnie

:megusta:

Possibly 130,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Mexico

by nicatnit, Thursday, September 03, 2020, 21:32 (27 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

That’s what we see here in the Midwest US. The reported death numbers don’t mean that much. It’s whats happening in the community that matters. We are lucky. It’s not bad here, but people remain very cautious.