Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Saturday, January 15, 2022, 21:40 (129 days ago)


https://youtu.be/F6c5kKxVPjE

Health authorities for the state of Guerrero report there are currently 330 active cases of Covid-19 in Zihuatanejo, 3 in La Unión and 1 in Petatlán. Zihuatanejo's rate of lethality is currently 6%, slightly lower than the national average of 6.9%. La Union's is 19% and Petatlán's is 11%.

The "tsunami" that hit our coast today only caused a minor fluctuation in the water level of about 15 centimeters according to recently updated reports. Hardly noticeable, though there were some surges of currents in Las Salinas lagoon where a couple of boats were flooded and others had some difficulty entering, but it wasn't even as bad as it was in 2011 and nothing at all like in 1985. It was almost funny to see how slowly and totally inadequately local authorities responded to the event. A reminder that we are pretty much on our own to inform ourselves of events such as tsunamis that might affect us. The federal government had it right and said there was no danger of a tsunami early this morning, which I repeated here and in social media early. I don't think the state even emitted an alert, but the local government emitted an alert around 6PM long after the event as over. EPIC FAIL.

Lupita and I are extremely grateful for the wonderful lunches we are able to order and have delivered to our home from La Jaiba Feliz, the restaurant we most regularly order from for the quality of their meals. Be sure to take advantage of the many restaurants where take-out and delivery services are available while we are going through one of the worst parts of this pandemia.
Restaurants in Zihuatanejo, Ixtapa, Troncones & Barra de Potosí

¡Cuidemos nuestro patrimonio!
#NoBlueFlagEnNuestrasPlayas
#PreservemosPlayaManzanillo

Another absolutely picture postcard perfect beautiful morning on Zihuatanejo's Playa Principal.
[image]

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by victorio, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 01:30 (129 days ago) @ ZihuaRob
edited by victorio, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 01:41

Hola. Tsunamis. Wasn't there a huge tsunami in the Petatlan area in the 1500s that went far inland and destroyed millions of lives and a few civilizations up and down tha coast? La Chloe comes to mind. I heard that a lot of the "mounds" around the area are actually old overgrown pyramids from old civilizations that vanished after the tsunami.

Avatar

Tsunamis

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 08:57 (128 days ago) @ victorio

Hola. Tsunamis. Wasn't there a huge tsunami in the Petatlan area in the 1500s that went far inland and destroyed millions of lives and a few civilizations up and down tha coast? La Chloe comes to mind. I heard that a lot of the "mounds" around the area are actually old overgrown pyramids from old civilizations that vanished after the tsunami.

La Chole. Yes. I've commented here years ago that the geography of the coast is obvious there have been great tsunamis here. Allegedly burying La Chole. But in all the regional history books I've read I've seen no mention that there have been tsunamis that big since the Conquista and colonization of Mexico. And as far as I know there have never been millions of people here on our coast with the current possible exception of Acapulco whose greater metropolitan area seems to have more people than the official census accounts for thanks especially to all the land invasions.

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by Ironwood @, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 01:43 (129 days ago) @ ZihuaRob

Not trying to be a wise-ass, but can you explain what the frightening phrase
"rate of lethality" means, with respect to the stats you've listed?

Avatar

Tasa de Letalidad

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 08:51 (128 days ago) @ Ironwood

Not trying to be a wise-ass, but can you explain what the frightening phrase
"rate of lethality" means, with respect to the stats you've listed?

La tasa de letalidad = # de muertos por cada 100 casos confirmados. Maybe you call it something else where you're from.

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by Lalo @, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 11:31 (128 days ago) @ Ironwood

In English it would be ‘death rate’. In other words with 330 active cases there are likely to
be 19.8 deaths attributed to the virus. Please wear your face masks when around other people to protect them!

Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by jaui @, Zihuatanejo, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 13:18 (128 days ago) @ Lalo
edited by jaui, Monday, January 17, 2022, 00:54

In English it would be ‘death rate’. In other words with 330 active cases there are likely to
be 19.8 deaths attributed to the virus. Please wear your face masks when around other people to protect them! "

16_Enero_2022

@Lalo & other Board Users

I did find this (possibly) more "formal", terminology--->

Mortality rate
Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time.
Wikipedia

And the "Morbidity" rate would be another stat to know.
Entonces, la pregunta es:

De la población con aproximadamente 120,00 habitantes en el municipio de Zihuatanejo de Azueta,
¿Cuál es el porcentaje de la población que han tenido Covid_19?

IF someone has that stat (?) for example, besides the %age, giving it in #of people per 1,000 would be a useful figure as well.
If for example 10 people per 1,000 had the virus, multiply 10 X 120, would tell us that 1200 persons, or 1% got infected.
_______________________________________________________________________________

17_Enero_2022 UPDATE:

Maybe Z Rob could intervene please IF you have the figure?
At the least, if one knows how many people/patients to date have been "officialy" counted with a confirmed Dx of Covid by the Hospital(s) in the area, that should provide at least a "ballpark" figure, recognizing that there are patients who had the virus, BUT were NOT officially counted.

In Z area, I suspect that the majority (2/3) of the population never got infected.
If 1/3 of the overall supposed population of 120,000 had acquired the Covid 19, that would be around 40,000 people, I don't think that that is the situation in Z.

Thanks in advance, to anyone who cares to intervene with the relevant figures that are available.

Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by Timmac @, Steilacoom, WA, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 14:16 (128 days ago) @ jaui

All of the Covid statistics are fraught with error. It all depends on the number of positives and that number depends on testing. Since only symptomatic people are tested the numbers will appear higher, as there are folks who are not tested who are asymptomatic but yet positive. The only way the numbers of cases and all of the data that flows from that could be accurate is if nearly everybody, symptomatic or not is tested. Folks, including me, would like to have more certainty here, but it’s not going to happen. Vax, boost, mask with effective mask, avoid crowds, avoid indoor gathering and keep your fingers crossed. That’s the best you can do.

Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by jaui @, Zihuatanejo, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 15:20 (128 days ago) @ Timmac

:megusta:

Thx. Timmac for taking your valuable time to reply :-)

That said, maybe a "guess-timate " exists, however inaccurate it may be, based on the figures they do have here in "Z"?

Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by Timmac @, Steilacoom, WA, Sunday, January 16, 2022, 21:50 (128 days ago) @ jaui

The number that is considered most idicative up here is hospitalizations. I’m not sure that that works well in Zihuatanejo, since, as I understand it, folks tend not to go to the hospital as frequently as we do. I am concerned that the road ahead will be rocky there since it is felt that the best protection is with full vaccination and a booster, and few, if any in Zihuatanejo have had boosters. I hope it continues to be less severe, but I think the jury is still out on that.

Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by Talley Ho @, Playa la Ropa, Monday, January 17, 2022, 09:30 (127 days ago) @ Timmac

No full time resident of Zihuatanejo has been boosted, yet. They are coming soon.

Avatar

Refuerzos

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Monday, January 17, 2022, 09:32 (127 days ago) @ Talley Ho

No full time resident of Zihuatanejo has been boosted, yet. They are coming soon.

We thought it would be this week but now I'm not so sure.

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by Ironwood @, Monday, January 17, 2022, 19:18 (127 days ago) @ Timmac

The number that is considered most idicative up here is hospitalizations. I’m not sure that that works well in Zihuatanejo, since, as I understand it, folks tend not to go to the hospital as frequently as we do. I am concerned that the road ahead will be rocky there since it is felt that the best protection is with full vaccination and a booster, and few, if any in Zihuatanejo have had boosters. I hope it continues to be less severe, but I think the jury is still out on that.


If the "rate of lethality" is the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases, ......and I'm guessing that in both Zihua's and Mexico's cases, because many of those actually suffering from COVID reportedly choose NOT to go to hospital, "confirmed cases" may be only the tip of the iceberg......then reported rates of lethality like 6% (Zihua) or 6.9% (Mexico) or 11% (Petatlan) or 19% (La Union)......compared to the USA (1.3%), Canada (1.1%) or the world (1.7%) are truly sobering.

Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by ZihuaRob ⌂ @, Zihuatanejo, México, Monday, January 17, 2022, 19:53 (127 days ago) @ Ironwood

The number that is considered most idicative up here is hospitalizations. I’m not sure that that works well in Zihuatanejo, since, as I understand it, folks tend not to go to the hospital as frequently as we do. I am concerned that the road ahead will be rocky there since it is felt that the best protection is with full vaccination and a booster, and few, if any in Zihuatanejo have had boosters. I hope it continues to be less severe, but I think the jury is still out on that.

If the "rate of lethality" is the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases, ......and I'm guessing that in both Zihua's and Mexico's cases, because many of those actually suffering from COVID reportedly choose NOT to go to hospital, "confirmed cases" may be only the tip of the iceberg......then reported rates of lethality like 6% (Zihua) or 6.9% (Mexico) or 11% (Petatlan) or 19% (La Union)......compared to the USA (1.3%), Canada (1.1%) or the world (1.7%) are truly sobering.

I believe you may be interpreting the numbers a bit wrong. I'm pretty sure that if Mexico tested as frequently and as many people as the USA and Canada that there would be much less disparity in the numbers. The facts that we test so little and generally have less access to medical facilities skew the numbers. That's why I keep stressing not to measure Mexico's experience with the wrong measuring stick. Living here and seeing daily reports from across the nation I just don't see that great a difference in the bottom line effects on our societies, only in the responses by individuals.

Avatar

Resplandor del ZIHelo Tropical

by Timmac @, Steilacoom, WA, Monday, January 17, 2022, 20:50 (127 days ago) @ Ironwood

The challenge in focusing on numbers is that the numbers are inherently unreliable. Since only those with symptoms are tested, you would expect the percentage of positive tests to be higher. In Washington state some of the clinics will only test symptomatic patients now, because of shortage of personnel and tests.
Hospitalizations could be a bit more reliable, but it’s my understanding that people in Mexico are much less likely to go to the hospital.
It’s pretty typical for us to want to put a number on things, but in this case all of the data is pretty squishy, so any result is not likely to be very accurate. Suffice it to say there’s a ton of omicron, which seems to be less serious and may be about to start decreasing.