Better to be here than there

From “Hurricane Tracker”…

We have already posted forecasts from AccuWeather and Colorado State University which both predicted an extremely active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season with over 20 tropical cyclones. The two main factors causing forecasters to issue high numbers is because the Atlantic Ocean is already seeing water temperatures at July levels and a La Nina is forecasted over the eastern Pacific which leads to reduced wind shear in the Atlantic, allowing more storms to form. We already have the data to prove the Atlantic is very warm, but what is the status on La Niña? We will also discuss if we typically see more hurricanes in the Gulf during La Niña years.

Back in February, El Niño was in full force across the central and eastern Pacific near the equator with water temps running 2°C+ above average. Two months later (April 2024), sea surface temperatures have dramatically reversed and temps are near normal to slightly below average in the same region. This will have important ramifications on the upcoming hurricane season.

NOAA is forecasting over a 70% chance of La Niña by July/August/Sept (the heart of the hurricane season). No reason this will not verify given how quickly we are seeing the reversal of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. (NOAA Graphic).

During a La Niña, the Atlantic basin typically seas more frequent tropical cyclones and overall, they are stronger due to less wind shear. We may see less activity for the eastern Pacific basin this season.