A few of my forecasts show the first tropical wave of the season next weekend. They differ on distance offshore.

As if right on cue, some smoke and increased humidity showed up this morning.

But if you look at the sea-surface temperature anomaly map on my Weather page, you'll notice the ocean in front of Zihuatanejo-Ixtapa is still cooler than normal. When we start seeing thunderheads over the Sierra Madre del Sur, then we'll know the rains here along the coast aren't long off.